The Super Bowl is the largest sports betting event on the planet. Every year, gamblers place millions of dollars worth of wagers on this one single game. And every year, the sportsbooks in Las Vegas and online will make a large chunk of their yearly earnings on people who bet on this game.
The oddsmakers in Vegas are so good that it is uncanny at times. This has led to a lot of speculation in the past. The Baltimore Ravens famously came out and accused the NFL of intentionally causing that power outage in the 2013 Super Bowl so the 49ers could get back into the game. It was kind of surprising that nobody tried to blame any of the bookmakers for this “accident”.
In any event, there is rarely any advantage for the lay person to take advantage of when they are planning on doing their Superbowl betting. One might wonder what they can do to better their chances of winning some money on Superbowl Sunday.
The following advice will help you make your selections regardless of the two teams that are playing in the game this season.
How to make you Super Bowl Picks
All decision parameters of a strategy must be objectively derivable. Therefore betting decisions of best-bets are not based on dubious proprietary prediction models, but utilize the expertise of external professionals. This expertise is statistically filtered and augmented and feeds finally the effective decision.
Experts can be sports journalists or bookies themselves, giving forecasts as simple tips or complex odd structures.
With the use of a variety of statistical methods the quality of the different forecasts is analyzed and examined for the existence of systematic features. Can systematic components be found, a strategy can be defined. As long the systematics prevail, the derived strategy will be profitable.
There lies the potential but also the risk of any best-bets strategy. Any systematic feature has to exist for quite a long time, otherwise it could not be detected with our methods. The longer it exists, the higher the chance that it will stay in the future.
On the other side, the betting market is highly competitive. All participants are looking for ways to improve their performance, to learn. As soon as other gamblers or bookies detect the patterns on which best-bets strategies are based, the relevant and essential odds will deteriorate and so will the returns of the strategies.
Since best-bets builds its strategies on vast statistical samples, any learning effect of other competitors can be realized very late, after significant losses might have already occurred.
The example of the huge oil tanker appears to fit. It can carry millions of barrels to its destination, but can hardly alter its course.
Therefore mind this warning: Past results are no guarantee for future profits!
You should follow best-bets strategies with bankrolls you really can afford to lose. A good benchmark could be your annual budget for holidays, risk so much money, that you can in case of losses at least consume 50% of the average holidays you had during the last 5 years. If you have actually realized your loss potential, do not try to win back your money by risking new money, perhaps even doubling up. These rules apply to any form of gambling.